NYSE MKT: TGD • $0.39     TSX: TMM • $0.52     Gold: 1284.56

2011

Updated Mine Plan and Increased Production Schedule for the San Francisco Mine, Sonora, Mexico


January 14, 2011

Timmins Gold Corp. ("Timmins" or the "Company") announces the completion and filing of the technical report titled NI 43-101 F1 updated resources and reserves and mine plan for the San Francisco Gold Mine, Sonora, Mexico, dated November 30, 2010, prepared by Micon International Limited of Toronto (Micon). The Technical Report was prepared to update the previous technical report dated March 31, 2008 (as amended on January 13, 2009), and to provide a base case scenario for increased production at the San Francisco Mine as a result of rising gold prices and a 28 % increase in the estimated mineral reserves at the mine.


Highlights
  1. Total gold production of 539,699 ounces from 2011 to 2016
  2. Average annual production of approximately 100,000 ounces of gold
  3. Base case life of mine cash costs of USD489 per ounce
  4. Strip ratio of 1.73
  5. Increase of crushing capacity to 18,000 tonnes per day
Commenting on the Technical Report results, Timmins Gold President Arturo Bonillas said: "The Technical Report confirms the robust economics of the San Francisco Mine. The increase in the mineral reserves at the San Francisco Mine has been obtained from the successful drilling undertaken up to June 30, 2010 and higher gold prices. The decision to increase the capacity of the crushing system to 18,000 tonnes per day by adding one more module has been derived from a number of factors including the successful startup of the mine, rising gold prices and the commensurate decrease in cutoff grade, and management's conviction that additional reserves will be established in and around the pit as a result of the extensive drilling program planned for 2011. We are confident that the base case scenario is conservative and that we will be able to achieve lower cash costs in actual operations."

RESOURCE AND RESERVE ESTIMATES


Mineral Resource


The updated mineral resource estimate was initially published on November 16, 2010. Figures have been rounded to reflect that they are estimations. Mineral Resources that are not Mineral Reserves do not, however, have demonstrated economic viability.

Mineral Resource Estimate (Inclusive of Mineral Reserves)
(Cut-off Grade 0.131 g/t Gold, USD 1,100 Gold Price)

Resource Classification Tonnes (x 1,000) Gold Grade (g/t) Contained Gold (oz)
Measured 19,089 0.797 489,000
Indicated 23,442 0.658 495,000
Total Measured and Indicated 42,531 0.720 984,000
Inferred 10,308 0.628 208,000


For open pit resources, Timmins utilized Lerchs Grossman pit shell geometry at reasonable long term prices, costs and recovery assumptions. The resource is based on a pit shell constructed at a gold price of USD 1,100 per ounce. Pit optimization was based on Measured, Indicated and Inferred resources which includes undiluted mineral reserve material based on data available as at August 31, 2010.


Mineral Reserve

Proven and Probable Reserves derived from the Measured and Indicated mineral resources including mine recovery and a dilution factor of 12% have been estimated within the ultimate pit outline commensurate with a gold price of USD 900 per ounce. Figures have been rounded to reflect that they are estimations.

Mineral Reserves after Mining Recovery and Dilution
(Cut-off Grade 0.16 g/t Gold at USD 900/oz)

In Pit Reserves In Pit Waste
Classification Tonnes (x 1,000) Grade (g/t) Contained Ounces Waste Tonnes (x 1,000) Total Tonnes (x 1,000) Stripping Ratio
Proven 17,194 0.756 418,000      
Probable 17,738 0.635 362,000      
Total 34,932 0.695 780,000 60,417 95,349 1.73


The strip ratio is estimated to be 1.73.

ECONOMIC EVALUATION

Metal Price Forecast

Revenue projections are based on a constant gold price of USD 1,000/oz in real terms, closely approximating the 3-year trailing average price but significantly lower than current spot prices. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the project to a gold price in a range of up to USD 1,400/oz has also been evaluated. For minor silver content, a price of USD 17/oz has been used.

The undiscounted base case cash flow evaluates to approximately USD 273.6 million before tax and USD 207.1 million after tax. The base case Net Present Value (NPV) at a discount rate of 8%/y (NPV) evaluates to approximately USD 216.8 million before tax and USD 163.1 million after tax. As pre-2011 capital costs have been treated as sunk, no internal rate of return has been calculated. The average cash cost of production equates to USD 489 per ounce of gold, or USD 7.88 per tonne treated.



Base Case


The base case evaluation has been made for a nominal through put rate of 18,000 tonnes per day, which is expected to be achieved by July, 2011. A summary of the base case life-of-mine statistics and annual cash flows are summarized in the table below.

Project Base Case Annual Cash Flows at USD 1,000 Per Ounce of Gold

 

USD 000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

LOM total

Revenue Gross Sales 94,272 103,502 103,042 103,913 86,217 48,744 539,689
  Bullion delivery 274 305 278 280 236 124 1,497
  Bullion refining 112 123 120 121 101 52 629
  Net Sales Revenue 93,885 103,074 102,644 103,513 85,880 48,567 537,564
                 
Cash Op. Costs Mining costs 35,528 33,279 29,418 24,260 23,722 13,572 159,779
  Crushing costs 8,525 9,455 9,454 9,454 9,439 2,709 49,036
  Leach costs 5,666 6,340 6,340 6,340 6,337 1,380 32,405
  ADR costs 1,442 1,576 1,576 1,576 1,570 428 8,168
  Metallurgy & Lab costs 441 451 451 451 446 193 2,434
  G&A costs 1,923 1,997 1,997 1,997 1,977 781 10,672
  Total Cash Operating Costs 53,526 53,098 49,236 44,077 43,491 19,065 262,494
                 
Net Cash Operating Margin (EBITDA) 40,359 49,975 53,408 59,435 42,389 29,502 275,070
                 
Capital Initial/expansion capital - - - - - - -
  Sustaining capital 6,143 690 2,729 393 302 302 10,559
  Changes in working capital 5,915 1,013 -375 -321 -2,247 -13,090 -9,107
                 
Net cash flow before tax 28,302 48,273 51,055 59,363 44,335 42,291 273,618
Taxation payable 9,082 12,706 13,195 14,370 9,512 7,658 66,523
Net cash flow after tax 19,220 35,567 37,859 44,993 34,823 34,633 207,095
                 
Discounted Cash Flow (8 %/y) Pre-Tax 27,234 43,010 42,119 45,345 31,357 27,696 216,760
Cumulative DCF (8 %/y) Pre-tax 27,234 70,243 112,362 157,707 189,064 216,760  
                 
Discounted Cash Flow (8 %/y) After tax 18,494 31,689 31,233 34,369 24,630 22,681 163,096
Cumulative DCF (8 %/y) After tax 18,494 50,183 81,416 115,785 140,415 163,096  

Sensitivity Study


Sensitivity of the NPV to changes in gold price, operating and capital costs has been analyzed. Revenues are directly proportional to gold price, recovery and grade. With an adverse change of 30% (i.e., a reduction in gold price to USD 700 per ounce), NPV remains strongly positive; economic break-even occurs with a gold price of around USD 510 per ounce. At USD 1,300 per ounce, NPV before tax is estimated at approximately USD 349 million.

Sensitivity of the project NPV has also been determined for a specified range of gold prices.

Sensitivity of NPV to Gold Price

Gold Price
US$/oz
NPV before tax
(US$ 000)
NPV after tax
(US$ 000)
600 40,309 39,764
700 84,422 75,151
800 128,535 104,487
900 172,648 132,981
1,000 216,760 163,096
1,100 260,873 193,292
1,200 304,986 224,666
1,300 349,099 256,040
1,400 393,211 287,415


The project is moderately sensitive to operating costs. As the bulk of project capital costs are already sunk, sensitivity to capital expenditures is negligible.

CONCLUSIONS

The following is a summary of Micon's conclusions:

"Micon has reviewed Timmins' operational plans for the San Francisco mine and believes that the mine plan and operational parameters have been well thought out. It is Micon's opinion that the San Francisco mine is a well-run operation. Micon supports the further economic studies to determine the impact of increasing the crusher throughput to 18,000 tonnes per day.

Micon has reviewed the proposed exploration program for San Francisco. It is Micon's opinion that Timmins' proposed exploration plans are properly conceived and justified for the San Francisco Mine and property.

Given the known extent of mineralization on the property, compared to the amount of mining activity, the San Francisco Mine and property has the potential to host further deposits or lenses of gold mineralization, similar in character and grade to those exploited in the past, outside the present resource base."

Qualified Person


This press release was reviewed and prepared by Lawrence A. Dick, Ph.D., P.Geo, a director of the Company, who is recognized as a Qualified Person under the guidelines of National Instrument 43-101 and by Miguel Soto, P. Geo., a director and the COO of the Company. Pursuant to National Instrument 43-101, Mr. William Lewis, B.Sc., P.Geo., Mr. Mani Verma, M.Eng., P.Eng., Ing. Alan J. San Martin, MAusIMM., from Micon International Ltd, (Micon), of Toronto, Ontario are the independent Qualified Persons responsible for the Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Estimate. Mr. Christopher A. Jacobs, CEng, MIMMM and Mr. Richard M. Gowans, B.Sc., P.Eng. of Micon International Ltd, (Micon), of Toronto, Ontario are the independent Qualified Persons responsible for the economic assessment and metallurgy. Each of Mr. Lewis, Mr. Verma, Mr. San Martin, Mr. Jacobs, Mr. Gowans, Mr. Dick and Mr. Soto have read and approved the contents of this news release. For further information please contact at 604-682-4002, or go to the website at www.timminsgold.com or contact our President Arturo Bonillas at arturo@timminsgold.com or 011-52-662-252-1132.

On behalf of the Board:
Bruce Bragagnolo, LLB
Chief Executive Officer
604-638-8980
bruce@timminsgold.com

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

This News Release contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements which relate to future events. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as "may", "should", "expects", "plans, "anticipates", believes", "estimates", "predicts", "potential", or "continue" or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. These statements are only predictions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our or our industry's actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, levels of activity, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.

While these forward-looking statements, and any assumptions upon which they are based, are made in good faith and reflect our current judgment regarding the direction of our business, actual results will almost always vary, sometimes materially, from any estimates, predictions, projections, assumptions or other future performance suggestions herein. Except as required by applicable law, Timmins Gold does not intend to update any forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.